Quick take
UnitedHealth remains the 800-pound gorilla of U.S. health care—licensed everywhere, armed with vast claims data and a vertically integrated services stack that competitors still struggle to copy. 2024-25 proved the company is not bullet-proof: medical-cost surprises, a headline-grabbing cyber-attack and DOJ scrutiny knocked margins and the share price down hard. If management’s current repair job works, free cash flow should rebound toward its long-run US$25-30 billion trajectory and compound at attractive rates thanks to the ageing population and Optum’s asset-light tech offerings. That potential, combined with a stock price that already discounts a lot of bad news, makes UNH a classic “quality franchise with a bruise”—not a slam-dunk, but a candidate for patient investors who can stomach regulatory noise and execution risk.
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