Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK

Deckers looks like a high‑quality compounder built on two distinctive brands and a scarcity‑first operating model that protects price and returns. The financial engine is excellent—high ROIC, strong free cash flow, and a net‑cash balance sheet—while the growth runway runs through international expansion, more owned retail, and steady product innovation. The catch is that footwear has low switching costs and real fashion/competition risk, and recent growth leaned on wholesale and timing just as margins begin to normalize. At today’s price, the expected value points to upside if DTC and international deliver and HOKA/UGG keep their edge, but the range of outcomes remains wide enough to demand ongoing discipline and monitoring.