Nucor Corporation NUE

Nucor is a high‑quality cyclical that’s getting less cyclical. The company’s real edge is a low‑cost EAF footprint plus raw‑material flexibility, now reinforced by a growing lineup of engineered, backlog‑driven products with steadier margins. Recent projects have earned attractive incremental returns and, if executed well, should push more earnings into the “stickier” bucket. But today’s normalized returns (ROIC mid‑single digits, negative TTM FCF amid heavy capex) remind us this is still steel, with outcomes tied to spreads, trade policy and project ramps. On our scenario‑weighted view, the stock looks roughly fairly valued with a wide range of outcomes. If you believe the towers/plate/coating/sheet investments will hit on time and that domestic demand stays firm under continued trade enforcement, the long‑term setup can compound nicely; if not, the cycle can still take a bite.